The fragmented field of five candidates in the Parti Socialiste and Place Publique primary, with voting set for October 9-10, drives trader expectations of no outright first-round winner. Raphaël Glucksmann leads in popularity surveys and presidential polling averages but lacks the broad consolidation needed for an absolute majority amid competition from Olivier Faure, Ségolène Royal, Jérôme Guedj, and Emmanuel Maurel. Over 140,000 registered voters, recent televised debates, and lingering internal tensions around candidate eligibility have not produced evidence of a dominant frontrunner capable of exceeding 50 percent. French primary precedents and vote-splitting dynamics reinforce the 70.5 percent implied probability that the contest advances to the October 16-17 runoff.