Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special U.S. Senate election due to the state’s Republican tilt, her status as the appointed incumbent who easily won her primary, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared with Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with recent polling averages showing Moody ahead by roughly eight points. Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary, has focused attacks on Moody’s prior role in a state fund diversion controversy and ties to national Republican priorities. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments in the Hope Florida matter, or broader national political changes before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlorida Senate Election Winner
Florida Senate Election Winner
$112,819 Vol.
$112,819 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$112,819 Vol.
$112,819 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$56,396 Vol.
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
$56,423 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special U.S. Senate election due to the state’s Republican tilt, her status as the appointed incumbent who easily won her primary, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared with Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with recent polling averages showing Moody ahead by roughly eight points. Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary, has focused attacks on Moody’s prior role in a state fund diversion controversy and ties to national Republican priorities. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments in the Hope Florida matter, or broader national political changes before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$112,819Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special U.S. Senate election due to the state’s Republican tilt, her status as the appointed incumbent who easily won her primary, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared with Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with recent polling averages showing Moody ahead by roughly eight points. Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary, has focused attacks on Moody’s prior role in a state fund diversion controversy and ties to national Republican priorities. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments in the Hope Florida matter, or broader national political changes before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$112,819Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special U.S. Senate election due to the state’s Republican tilt, her status as the appointed incumbent who easily won her primary, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared with Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican, consistent with recent polling averages showing Moody ahead by roughly eight points. Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary, has focused attacks on Moody’s prior role in a state fund diversion controversy and ties to national Republican priorities. Potential shifts could arise from unusually high Democratic turnout, major late developments in the Hope Florida matter, or broader national political changes before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions