Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has consistently conditioned his participation in presidential debates on the confirmed presence of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his primary opponent in the October 4 first round. This strategy, evident in the August 23 Band debate boycott and subsequent planning for the September 14 Momento da Decisão event, aims to limit exposure to attacks from lower-polling candidates while prioritizing direct confrontation with Lula. Lula’s parallel reluctance to join events without reciprocal attendance has reinforced the pattern. Current polling shows Flávio as the main challenger but still trailing, aligning trader expectations that no joint debate will occur before voting.