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icon for FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

Ryan Elijah 100.0%

Mike Johnson <1%

Cory Mills <1%

Sarah Ulrich <1%

Polymarket

$66,010 Vol.

Ryan Elijah 100.0%

Mike Johnson <1%

Cory Mills <1%

Sarah Ulrich <1%

Polymarket

$66,010 Vol.

icon for Ryan Elijah

Ryan Elijah

$28,273 Vol.

Yes

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$1,372 Vol.

No

icon for Cory Mills

Cory Mills

$34,429 Vol.

No

icon for Sarah Ulrich

Sarah Ulrich

$1,936 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ryan Elijah captured the Republican nomination for Florida's 7th Congressional District in the August 18, 2026 primary, defeating incumbent Rep. Cory Mills and two other challengers with roughly 47 percent of the vote. The former local television news anchor built a well-funded campaign that drew endorsements from area sheriffs and sitting members of Congress, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with Mills amid reports of personal and political controversies. With results called shortly after polls closed and a clear margin over the nearest competitor, trader consensus reflects the completed primary outcome rather than speculation. Limited remaining uncertainty centers on routine vote certification or any narrow legal challenge, though neither has materialized in the hours since election night.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$66,010
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ryan Elijah captured the Republican nomination for Florida's 7th Congressional District in the August 18, 2026 primary, defeating incumbent Rep. Cory Mills and two other challengers with roughly 47 percent of the vote. The former local television news anchor built a well-funded campaign that drew endorsements from area sheriffs and sitting members of Congress, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with Mills amid reports of personal and political controversies. With results called shortly after polls closed and a clear margin over the nearest competitor, trader consensus reflects the completed primary outcome rather than speculation. Limited remaining uncertainty centers on routine vote certification or any narrow legal challenge, though neither has materialized in the hours since election night.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$66,010
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ryan Elijah" at 100%, followed by "Mike Johnson" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $66K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" is "Ryan Elijah" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mike Johnson" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.