Persistent inflation around 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, underpins the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one 2026 Fed rate hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes and a 9-3 July vote—with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase—highlight the divided policy stance and upward revisions in the June dot plot, where nine participants projected a higher year-end rate. Solid GDP growth and labor market resilience support this hawkish tilt, yet expectations of moderating price pressures and the absence of new projections create balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, July CPI release, and any further geopolitical developments that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55% chance
$7,287,659 Vol.
$7,287,659 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
55% chance
$7,287,659 Vol.
$7,287,659 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation around 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, underpins the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one 2026 Fed rate hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes and a 9-3 July vote—with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase—highlight the divided policy stance and upward revisions in the June dot plot, where nine participants projected a higher year-end rate. Solid GDP growth and labor market resilience support this hawkish tilt, yet expectations of moderating price pressures and the absence of new projections create balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, July CPI release, and any further geopolitical developments that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,287,659End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation around 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, underpins the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one 2026 Fed rate hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes and a 9-3 July vote—with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase—highlight the divided policy stance and upward revisions in the June dot plot, where nine participants projected a higher year-end rate. Solid GDP growth and labor market resilience support this hawkish tilt, yet expectations of moderating price pressures and the absence of new projections create balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, July CPI release, and any further geopolitical developments that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,295,204End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation around 3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, underpins the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one 2026 Fed rate hike from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent FOMC minutes and a 9-3 July vote—with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase—highlight the divided policy stance and upward revisions in the June dot plot, where nine participants projected a higher year-end rate. Solid GDP growth and labor market resilience support this hawkish tilt, yet expectations of moderating price pressures and the absence of new projections create balance. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, July CPI release, and any further geopolitical developments that could shift trader consensus on the rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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