Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighted by August 2026 CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and a 0.4% monthly increase, has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward additional tightening in 2026. Stronger energy prices, including oil near $100 per barrel, and firmer core readings have prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to now forecast quarter-point hikes at the September FOMC meeting and beyond, with futures pricing an 87-90% chance of an immediate move from the current 3.50-3.75% range. Under Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, the Summary of Economic Projections is expected to reflect a higher rate path. However, faster disinflation or labor-market softening could still alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026?
92% chance
$9,327,507 Vol.
$9,327,507 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
92% chance
$9,327,507 Vol.
$9,327,507 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighted by August 2026 CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and a 0.4% monthly increase, has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward additional tightening in 2026. Stronger energy prices, including oil near $100 per barrel, and firmer core readings have prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to now forecast quarter-point hikes at the September FOMC meeting and beyond, with futures pricing an 87-90% chance of an immediate move from the current 3.50-3.75% range. Under Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, the Summary of Economic Projections is expected to reflect a higher rate path. However, faster disinflation or labor-market softening could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$9,327,507End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighted by August 2026 CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and a 0.4% monthly increase, has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward additional tightening in 2026. Stronger energy prices, including oil near $100 per barrel, and firmer core readings have prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to now forecast quarter-point hikes at the September FOMC meeting and beyond, with futures pricing an 87-90% chance of an immediate move from the current 3.50-3.75% range. Under Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, the Summary of Economic Projections is expected to reflect a higher rate path. However, faster disinflation or labor-market softening could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,327,507End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighted by August 2026 CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise and a 0.4% monthly increase, has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward additional tightening in 2026. Stronger energy prices, including oil near $100 per barrel, and firmer core readings have prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to now forecast quarter-point hikes at the September FOMC meeting and beyond, with futures pricing an 87-90% chance of an immediate move from the current 3.50-3.75% range. Under Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, the Summary of Economic Projections is expected to reflect a higher rate path. However, faster disinflation or labor-market softening could still alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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