Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI and producer price readings, combined with oil prices above $100 amid Middle East tensions, have driven market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026 to 93.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and subsequent bank forecasts from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have reinforced the shift, with futures now embedding roughly two hikes by year-end from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Treasury yields and swap pricing reflect this repricing of the policy path. Still, faster disinflation from declining energy costs or weaker labor data could reduce the need for further tightening and alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026?
94% chance
$9,541,890 Vol.
$9,541,890 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
94% chance
$9,541,890 Vol.
$9,541,890 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI and producer price readings, combined with oil prices above $100 amid Middle East tensions, have driven market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026 to 93.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and subsequent bank forecasts from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have reinforced the shift, with futures now embedding roughly two hikes by year-end from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Treasury yields and swap pricing reflect this repricing of the policy path. Still, faster disinflation from declining energy costs or weaker labor data could reduce the need for further tightening and alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$9,541,890End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI and producer price readings, combined with oil prices above $100 amid Middle East tensions, have driven market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026 to 93.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and subsequent bank forecasts from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have reinforced the shift, with futures now embedding roughly two hikes by year-end from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Treasury yields and swap pricing reflect this repricing of the policy path. Still, faster disinflation from declining energy costs or weaker labor data could reduce the need for further tightening and alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,541,890End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI and producer price readings, combined with oil prices above $100 amid Middle East tensions, have driven market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in 2026 to 93.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and subsequent bank forecasts from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have reinforced the shift, with futures now embedding roughly two hikes by year-end from the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Treasury yields and swap pricing reflect this repricing of the policy path. Still, faster disinflation from declining energy costs or weaker labor data could reduce the need for further tightening and alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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