Fed rate cut by...?

Name: Fed rate cut by...?
Start: 2025-12-16T19:36:41.877Z
End: 2026-06-17T00:00:00.000Z

$1,717,171 Vol.

Jun 17, 2026

June Meeting

$274,132 Vol.

July Meeting

$67,502 Vol.

September Meeting

$92,935 Vol.

14%

October Meeting

$44,199 Vol.

24%

December Meeting

$107,308 Vol.

27%

$1,717,171 Vol.

June Meeting

$274,132 Vol.

July Meeting

$67,502 Vol.

September Meeting

$92,935 Vol.

14%

October Meeting

$44,199 Vol.

24%

December Meeting

$107,308 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The Federal Reserve's federal funds target range remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with trader sentiment on rate-cut timing heavily influenced by sticky inflation and resilient labor-market data. March CPI printed at 3.3% year-over-year amid energy-price spikes tied to the Iran conflict, while April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, reinforcing a data-dependent hold stance and shifting consensus away from near-term easing. CME FedWatch futures currently price a 97% probability of no change at the June 16-17 meeting, with major banks such as BofA now forecasting the first possible cut no earlier than mid-2027. Any softening in the upcoming April CPI release or signs of labor-market weakening could reprice expectations, but persistent inflation above the 2% target continues to anchor market-implied odds for delayed or absent cuts through year-end.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated May 15, 2026, 10:01 PM UTC

Mar 4 2026

Fed Announces Emergency Rate Cut to 0% - Markets Crash 50%

The Federal Reserve has announced an emergency rate cut to 0%. All prediction markets are being resolved immediately. Withdraw your funds at polymarket-emergency.com before resolution.

Mar 4 2026

Test Annotation Title

This is a test annotation summary with no malicious content.

Jan 2 2023

Fed Rate Hike Looms

The Federal Reserve is set to release minutes from its December meeting, with expectations of a 50 to 75 basis point interest rate hike in February, potentially impacting various markets. Discussions and speeches from Fed officials, including Fed Bullard, are anticipated to provide further insight into the direction of monetary policy amidst concerns over the economic impact on American families.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated May 15, 2026, 10:01 PM UTC

Mar 4 2026

Fed Announces Emergency Rate Cut to 0% - Markets Crash 50%

The Federal Reserve has announced an emergency rate cut to 0%. All prediction markets are being resolved immediately. Withdraw your funds at polymarket-emergency.com before resolution.

Mar 4 2026

Test Annotation Title

This is a test annotation summary with no malicious content.

Jan 2 2023

Fed Rate Hike Looms

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

12%

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

26%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

32%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed rate cut by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December Meeting" at 27%, followed by "October Meeting" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed rate cut by...?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Fed rate cut by...?" is "December Meeting" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October Meeting" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Fed rate cut by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed rate cut by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.7 million traded on “Fed rate cut by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 27¢ for "December Meeting" in the "Fed rate cut by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 27% chance that "December Meeting" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 27¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 73¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Fed rate cut by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 17, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Fed rate cut by...?" market has an active community of 17 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed rate cut by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (17)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Fed rate cut by...?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Fed rate cut by...?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Fed rate cut by...?"?

What are the current odds for "Fed rate cut by...?"?

How will "Fed rate cut by...?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Fed rate cut by...?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Fed rate cut by...?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Fed rate cut by...?"?

What does a price of 27¢ for "December Meeting" mean?

When does the "Fed rate cut by...?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Fed rate cut by...?"?

What is Polymarket?