**Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven the 76% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence, reflecting the elevated chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike.** The federal funds target range has remained at 3.50–3.75% since early 2026, with the July 29 meeting producing a 9–3 hold vote amid three dissents favoring tightening. Recent data show core inflation pressures persisting alongside a solid but gradually cooling labor market, while energy price spikes have complicated the disinflation path. Economists largely forecast holds through year-end, supporting the 24% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause, yet futures markets price in roughly even odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming CPI release. Upcoming September and October meetings, together with any further inflation or employment prints, remain the key swing factors for these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 76%
Pause–Pause–Pause 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$749,854 Vol.
$749,854 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
24%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
76%
Other 76%
Pause–Pause–Pause 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$749,854 Vol.
$749,854 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$251,432 Vol.
24%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,696 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Vol.
<1%
Other
$320,619 Vol.
76%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven the 76% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence, reflecting the elevated chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike.** The federal funds target range has remained at 3.50–3.75% since early 2026, with the July 29 meeting producing a 9–3 hold vote amid three dissents favoring tightening. Recent data show core inflation pressures persisting alongside a solid but gradually cooling labor market, while energy price spikes have complicated the disinflation path. Economists largely forecast holds through year-end, supporting the 24% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause, yet futures markets price in roughly even odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming CPI release. Upcoming September and October meetings, together with any further inflation or employment prints, remain the key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$749,854End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven the 76% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence, reflecting the elevated chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike.** The federal funds target range has remained at 3.50–3.75% since early 2026, with the July 29 meeting producing a 9–3 hold vote amid three dissents favoring tightening. Recent data show core inflation pressures persisting alongside a solid but gradually cooling labor market, while energy price spikes have complicated the disinflation path. Economists largely forecast holds through year-end, supporting the 24% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause, yet futures markets price in roughly even odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming CPI release. Upcoming September and October meetings, together with any further inflation or employment prints, remain the key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$749,854End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven the 76% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence, reflecting the elevated chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike.** The federal funds target range has remained at 3.50–3.75% since early 2026, with the July 29 meeting producing a 9–3 hold vote amid three dissents favoring tightening. Recent data show core inflation pressures persisting alongside a solid but gradually cooling labor market, while energy price spikes have complicated the disinflation path. Economists largely forecast holds through year-end, supporting the 24% probability on Pause–Pause–Pause, yet futures markets price in roughly even odds of a September hike ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming CPI release. Upcoming September and October meetings, together with any further inflation or employment prints, remain the key swing factors for these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions