Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% annual increase—driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored market-implied odds at 92.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the prior pause and core inflation at 2.9%, traders interpret the data trajectory and recent central bank communications as supporting a continued hold to assess the persistence of price pressures. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in pricing probabilities rather than certainties. A sharper-than-expected moderation in June inflation or signs of labor market softening ahead of the meeting could introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 93%
25 bps increase 5.8%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$9,166,836 Vol.
$9,166,836 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
93%
25 bps increase
6%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 93%
25 bps increase 5.8%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$9,166,836 Vol.
$9,166,836 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,256,404 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,004,833 Vol.
1%
No change
$1,360,373 Vol.
93%
25 bps increase
$4,009,269 Vol.
6%
50+ bps increase
$1,535,957 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% annual increase—driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored market-implied odds at 92.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the prior pause and core inflation at 2.9%, traders interpret the data trajectory and recent central bank communications as supporting a continued hold to assess the persistence of price pressures. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in pricing probabilities rather than certainties. A sharper-than-expected moderation in June inflation or signs of labor market softening ahead of the meeting could introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$9,166,836End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% annual increase—driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored market-implied odds at 92.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the prior pause and core inflation at 2.9%, traders interpret the data trajectory and recent central bank communications as supporting a continued hold to assess the persistence of price pressures. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in pricing probabilities rather than certainties. A sharper-than-expected moderation in June inflation or signs of labor market softening ahead of the meeting could introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$9,166,836End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% annual increase—driven primarily by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions—has anchored market-implied odds at 92.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the prior pause and core inflation at 2.9%, traders interpret the data trajectory and recent central bank communications as supporting a continued hold to assess the persistence of price pressures. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in pricing probabilities rather than certainties. A sharper-than-expected moderation in June inflation or signs of labor market softening ahead of the meeting could introduce volatility, though such shifts remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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