Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of FDA approval for argenx's Vyvgart (efgartigimod alfa-fcab) in acetylcholine receptor antibody (AChR-Ab) seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), driven by robust Phase 3 ADAPT SERON trial data showing a statistically significant 3.35-point mean improvement in MG-ADL scores at week 4 (p=0.0068) across MuSK+, LRP4+, and triple seronegative subtypes, with sustained benefits and a safety profile consistent with prior indications. Recent presentations at the AAN 2026 meeting (April 18) highlighted rapid symptom control in open-label extensions, reinforcing efficacy in this underserved population comprising 15-20% of gMG patients lacking targeted therapies. The FDA granted priority review to the sBLA in January, setting a PDUFA target action date of May 10; while small trial size (n=119) introduces modest uncertainty around labeling scope, no advisory flags have emerged. Watch for the FDA decision next week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
NEW
NEW
May 10, 2026
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is May 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of FDA approval for argenx's Vyvgart (efgartigimod alfa-fcab) in acetylcholine receptor antibody (AChR-Ab) seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), driven by robust Phase 3 ADAPT SERON trial data showing a statistically significant 3.35-point mean improvement in MG-ADL scores at week 4 (p=0.0068) across MuSK+, LRP4+, and triple seronegative subtypes, with sustained benefits and a safety profile consistent with prior indications. Recent presentations at the AAN 2026 meeting (April 18) highlighted rapid symptom control in open-label extensions, reinforcing efficacy in this underserved population comprising 15-20% of gMG patients lacking targeted therapies. The FDA granted priority review to the sBLA in January, setting a PDUFA target action date of May 10; while small trial size (n=119) introduces modest uncertainty around labeling scope, no advisory flags have emerged. Watch for the FDA decision next week.
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is May 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is May 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of FDA approval for argenx's Vyvgart (efgartigimod alfa-fcab) in acetylcholine receptor antibody (AChR-Ab) seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), driven by robust Phase 3 ADAPT SERON trial data showing a statistically significant 3.35-point mean improvement in MG-ADL scores at week 4 (p=0.0068) across MuSK+, LRP4+, and triple seronegative subtypes, with sustained benefits and a safety profile consistent with prior indications. Recent presentations at the AAN 2026 meeting (April 18) highlighted rapid symptom control in open-label extensions, reinforcing efficacy in this underserved population comprising 15-20% of gMG patients lacking targeted therapies. The FDA granted priority review to the sBLA in January, setting a PDUFA target action date of May 10; while small trial size (n=119) introduces modest uncertainty around labeling scope, no advisory flags have emerged. Watch for the FDA decision next week.
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is May 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for argenx's Vyvgart as a treatment for seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$25End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of FDA approval for argenx's Vyvgart (efgartigimod alfa-fcab) in acetylcholine receptor antibody (AChR-Ab) seronegative generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), driven by robust Phase 3 ADAPT SERON trial data showing a statistically significant 3.35-point mean improvement in MG-ADL scores at week 4 (p=0.0068) across MuSK+, LRP4+, and triple seronegative subtypes, with sustained benefits and a safety profile consistent with prior indications. Recent presentations at the AAN 2026 meeting (April 18) highlighted rapid symptom control in open-label extensions, reinforcing efficacy in this underserved population comprising 15-20% of gMG patients lacking targeted therapies. The FDA granted priority review to the sBLA in January, setting a PDUFA target action date of May 10; while small trial size (n=119) introduces modest uncertainty around labeling scope, no advisory flags have emerged. Watch for the FDA decision next week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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