George Russell secured pole position for Mercedes at the Baku City Circuit ahead of Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri, while title leader Kimi Antonelli starts 16th after a Q1 error. The 51-lap street race on the high-speed layout with its long straight and tight corners favors strong straight-line speed and braking stability, areas where Red Bull has historically excelled with four wins in the last five editions. Max Verstappen starts eighth in an upgraded car after teammate Isack Hadjar qualified fourth, positioning both for potential podium charges amid the circuit's typical safety car disruptions and overtaking opportunities. Recent Mercedes pace in practice and qualifying underpins trader consensus on frontrunners, though Antonelli's recovery from the grid and any late incidents could shift implied probabilities quickly on this unpredictable venue.