**David Harbour’s commanding performance in the buzzy HBO limited series “DTF St. Louis” anchors trader consensus at 66.8% implied probability.** The show earned 13 Emmy nominations overall, including multiple acting nods, signaling strong industry support and positioning it as a major limited-series contender this cycle. Harbour, long overdue for an Emmy after “Stranger Things,” benefits from early critical praise and the project’s momentum following nominations in early July. Charles Melton’s 24.4% share reflects solid but secondary backing for his work in Netflix’s “Beef,” while the remaining nominees—Richard Gadd (“Half Man”), Nick Offerman (“Death By Lightning”), and fellow “DTF St. Louis” castmates Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins—trail with single-digit odds amid the field’s concentration around the HBO frontrunner. The September ceremony and any late precursor signals could still introduce volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie
Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” 66.8%
Charles Melton – “Beef” 24.4%
Richard Gadd – “Half Man” 4.9%
Nick Offerman – “Death By Lightning” 3.9%
$18,628 Vol.
$18,628 Vol.
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis”
67%
Charles Melton – “Beef”
24%
Richard Gadd – “Half Man”
5%
Nick Offerman – “Death By Lightning”
4%
Jason Bateman – “DTF St. Louis”
3%
Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis”
1%
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” 66.8%
Charles Melton – “Beef” 24.4%
Richard Gadd – “Half Man” 4.9%
Nick Offerman – “Death By Lightning” 3.9%
$18,628 Vol.
$18,628 Vol.
David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis”
67%
Charles Melton – “Beef”
24%
Richard Gadd – “Half Man”
5%
Nick Offerman – “Death By Lightning”
4%
Jason Bateman – “DTF St. Louis”
3%
Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis”
1%
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**David Harbour’s commanding performance in the buzzy HBO limited series “DTF St. Louis” anchors trader consensus at 66.8% implied probability.** The show earned 13 Emmy nominations overall, including multiple acting nods, signaling strong industry support and positioning it as a major limited-series contender this cycle. Harbour, long overdue for an Emmy after “Stranger Things,” benefits from early critical praise and the project’s momentum following nominations in early July. Charles Melton’s 24.4% share reflects solid but secondary backing for his work in Netflix’s “Beef,” while the remaining nominees—Richard Gadd (“Half Man”), Nick Offerman (“Death By Lightning”), and fellow “DTF St. Louis” castmates Jason Bateman and Richard Jenkins—trail with single-digit odds amid the field’s concentration around the HBO frontrunner. The September ceremony and any late precursor signals could still introduce volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?
Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
Will Tom Pelphrey – “Task” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?
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