The Pitt’s commanding 92% implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for the 2026 ceremony—nearly double its prior total—and status as the clear repeat frontrunner after last year’s upset win. Industry predictors across Variety, Gold Derby, and the Los Angeles Times cite its dominant acting nods, critical momentum, and historical precedent for back-to-back medical drama victories as decisive factors locking in trader consensus. With the September ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow and would require an unprecedented late surge from contenders like The Diplomat or Slow Horses, combined with a rare voter backlash against the frontrunner’s sophomore season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
“The Pitt” 92%
“Paradise” 3.5%
"The Diplomat" 3.3%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” 2.3%
$13,843 Vol.
$13,843 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
92%
“Paradise”
3%
"The Diplomat"
3%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
2%
“Slow Horses”
2%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
1%
“The Gilded Age”
1%
“The Pitt” 92%
“Paradise” 3.5%
"The Diplomat" 3.3%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” 2.3%
$13,843 Vol.
$13,843 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
$9,406 Vol.
92%
“Paradise”
$634 Vol.
3%
"The Diplomat"
$572 Vol.
3%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
$414 Vol.
2%
“Slow Horses”
$1,696 Vol.
2%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
$578 Vol.
1%
“The Gilded Age”
$544 Vol.
1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 92% implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for the 2026 ceremony—nearly double its prior total—and status as the clear repeat frontrunner after last year’s upset win. Industry predictors across Variety, Gold Derby, and the Los Angeles Times cite its dominant acting nods, critical momentum, and historical precedent for back-to-back medical drama victories as decisive factors locking in trader consensus. With the September ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow and would require an unprecedented late surge from contenders like The Diplomat or Slow Horses, combined with a rare voter backlash against the frontrunner’s sophomore season.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$13,843End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 92% implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for the 2026 ceremony—nearly double its prior total—and status as the clear repeat frontrunner after last year’s upset win. Industry predictors across Variety, Gold Derby, and the Los Angeles Times cite its dominant acting nods, critical momentum, and historical precedent for back-to-back medical drama victories as decisive factors locking in trader consensus. With the September ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow and would require an unprecedented late surge from contenders like The Diplomat or Slow Horses, combined with a rare voter backlash against the frontrunner’s sophomore season.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,843End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pitt’s commanding 92% implied probability stems from its record 25 Emmy nominations for the 2026 ceremony—nearly double its prior total—and status as the clear repeat frontrunner after last year’s upset win. Industry predictors across Variety, Gold Derby, and the Los Angeles Times cite its dominant acting nods, critical momentum, and historical precedent for back-to-back medical drama victories as decisive factors locking in trader consensus. With the September ceremony approaching, realistic upset paths remain narrow and would require an unprecedented late surge from contenders like The Diplomat or Slow Horses, combined with a rare voter backlash against the frontrunner’s sophomore season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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