Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 240-259 times on X from April 3 to April 10, 2026, driven by verified trackers showing exactly 241 posts as of late morning ET today, with the market window closing at noon ET. This reflects his consistent daily average of around 34 posts over the first seven days, amid steady engagement on topics like Tesla updates, politics, and memes—typical of Musk's high-volume social media presence. Historical patterns confirm such pacing rarely surges dramatically, cementing the frontrunner. An upset would require an improbable final-hour barrage exceeding 18 posts in under an hour, defying his observed rhythms, though markets acknowledge entertainment unpredictability until resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated240-259 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,134,329 Vol.
$11,134,329 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
Yes
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
240-259 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,134,329 Vol.
$11,134,329 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
Yes
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 240-259 times on X from April 3 to April 10, 2026, driven by verified trackers showing exactly 241 posts as of late morning ET today, with the market window closing at noon ET. This reflects his consistent daily average of around 34 posts over the first seven days, amid steady engagement on topics like Tesla updates, politics, and memes—typical of Musk's high-volume social media presence. Historical patterns confirm such pacing rarely surges dramatically, cementing the frontrunner. An upset would require an improbable final-hour barrage exceeding 18 posts in under an hour, defying his observed rhythms, though markets acknowledge entertainment unpredictability until resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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