Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 X posts from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15 12:00 PM ET, 2026, after public trackers like Polymarket's X Tracker confirmed a precise tally of 69 posts—fitting squarely in that bin following the period's close. This strong positioning reflects Musk's characteristically prolific social media cadence, averaging 20-30 daily updates amid heated public discourse on X platform innovations, Tesla developments, and cultural flashpoints, consistent with his 103 posts over the prior April 11-13 window. While awards-style secrecy isn't a factor here, an upset would require a rare verification dispute over post inclusion criteria (e.g., replies vs. originals), but multiple real-time counters make such a shift negligible as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated65-89 100.0%
<40 <1%
40-64 <1%
90-114 <1%
$3,263,115 Vol.
$3,263,115 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
<40
No
40-64
No
65-89
Yes
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
65-89 100.0%
<40 <1%
40-64 <1%
90-114 <1%
$3,263,115 Vol.
$3,263,115 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
<40
$695,709 Vol.
No
40-64
$543,587 Vol.
No
65-89
$609,615 Vol.
Yes
90-114
$775,739 Vol.
No
115-139
$332,875 Vol.
No
140-164
$107,107 Vol.
No
165-189
$63,053 Vol.
No
190-214
$47,277 Vol.
No
215-239
$49,661 Vol.
No
240+
$38,493 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 X posts from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15 12:00 PM ET, 2026, after public trackers like Polymarket's X Tracker confirmed a precise tally of 69 posts—fitting squarely in that bin following the period's close. This strong positioning reflects Musk's characteristically prolific social media cadence, averaging 20-30 daily updates amid heated public discourse on X platform innovations, Tesla developments, and cultural flashpoints, consistent with his 103 posts over the prior April 11-13 window. While awards-style secrecy isn't a factor here, an upset would require a rare verification dispute over post inclusion criteria (e.g., replies vs. originals), but multiple real-time counters make such a shift negligible as resolution nears.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$3,263,115End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 X posts from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15 12:00 PM ET, 2026, after public trackers like Polymarket's X Tracker confirmed a precise tally of 69 posts—fitting squarely in that bin following the period's close. This strong positioning reflects Musk's characteristically prolific social media cadence, averaging 20-30 daily updates amid heated public discourse on X platform innovations, Tesla developments, and cultural flashpoints, consistent with his 103 posts over the prior April 11-13 window. While awards-style secrecy isn't a factor here, an upset would require a rare verification dispute over post inclusion criteria (e.g., replies vs. originals), but multiple real-time counters make such a shift negligible as resolution nears.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,263,115End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 X posts from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15 12:00 PM ET, 2026, after public trackers like Polymarket's X Tracker confirmed a precise tally of 69 posts—fitting squarely in that bin following the period's close. This strong positioning reflects Musk's characteristically prolific social media cadence, averaging 20-30 daily updates amid heated public discourse on X platform innovations, Tesla developments, and cultural flashpoints, consistent with his 103 posts over the prior April 11-13 window. While awards-style secrecy isn't a factor here, an upset would require a rare verification dispute over post inclusion criteria (e.g., replies vs. originals), but multiple real-time counters make such a shift negligible as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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