Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from April 11-13, 2026, driven by the live X tracker showing 134 total posts as of early April 13 EST after two full days elapsed, with a daily average of 67—firmly centering the count in this bin amid limited time remaining. This positioning reflects Musk's consistent high-volume posting rhythm, recently averaging 35-60 tweets daily across April (e.g., 57 on April 11-12, 78 on 12-13 per trader analyses), fueled by his outsized role in viral political discourse, tech announcements, and meme culture. Realistic upsets to higher ranges like 165-189 would demand an anomalous 30+ tweet surge on April 13 alone, improbable given recent trajectories and historical peaks rarely exceeding 100 daily amid his packed CEO schedule.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated115-139 100.0%
<40 <1%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
$3,648,577 Vol.
$3,648,577 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<40
No
40-64
No
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
Yes
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
115-139 100.0%
<40 <1%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
$3,648,577 Vol.
$3,648,577 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
<40
$207,362 Vol.
No
40-64
$274,387 Vol.
No
65-89
$274,633 Vol.
No
90-114
$320,599 Vol.
No
115-139
$660,363 Vol.
Yes
140-164
$455,430 Vol.
No
165-189
$516,224 Vol.
No
190-214
$500,240 Vol.
No
215-239
$225,974 Vol.
No
240+
$213,366 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 11 12:00 PM ET to April 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from April 11-13, 2026, driven by the live X tracker showing 134 total posts as of early April 13 EST after two full days elapsed, with a daily average of 67—firmly centering the count in this bin amid limited time remaining. This positioning reflects Musk's consistent high-volume posting rhythm, recently averaging 35-60 tweets daily across April (e.g., 57 on April 11-12, 78 on 12-13 per trader analyses), fueled by his outsized role in viral political discourse, tech announcements, and meme culture. Realistic upsets to higher ranges like 165-189 would demand an anomalous 30+ tweet surge on April 13 alone, improbable given recent trajectories and historical peaks rarely exceeding 100 daily amid his packed CEO schedule.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 11 12:00 PM ET to April 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$3,648,577End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 11 12:00 PM ET to April 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from April 11-13, 2026, driven by the live X tracker showing 134 total posts as of early April 13 EST after two full days elapsed, with a daily average of 67—firmly centering the count in this bin amid limited time remaining. This positioning reflects Musk's consistent high-volume posting rhythm, recently averaging 35-60 tweets daily across April (e.g., 57 on April 11-12, 78 on 12-13 per trader analyses), fueled by his outsized role in viral political discourse, tech announcements, and meme culture. Realistic upsets to higher ranges like 165-189 would demand an anomalous 30+ tweet surge on April 13 alone, improbable given recent trajectories and historical peaks rarely exceeding 100 daily amid his packed CEO schedule.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 11 12:00 PM ET to April 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,648,577End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from April 11-13, 2026, driven by the live X tracker showing 134 total posts as of early April 13 EST after two full days elapsed, with a daily average of 67—firmly centering the count in this bin amid limited time remaining. This positioning reflects Musk's consistent high-volume posting rhythm, recently averaging 35-60 tweets daily across April (e.g., 57 on April 11-12, 78 on 12-13 per trader analyses), fueled by his outsized role in viral political discourse, tech announcements, and meme culture. Realistic upsets to higher ranges like 165-189 would demand an anomalous 30+ tweet surge on April 13 alone, improbable given recent trajectories and historical peaks rarely exceeding 100 daily amid his packed CEO schedule.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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