Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth exceeding $690 billion by May 31, driven primarily by Tesla's share price rally to around $443 as of May 14—up over 10% in the past month following Q1 2026 earnings that beat revenue estimates at $22.4 billion and EPS at $0.41 amid AI capex warnings. His roughly 12% Tesla stake, valued via real-time market cap, anchors much of the positioning, complemented by a 40-44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity at $1.03-$1.25 trillion post-February merger. Recent SpaceX IPO filings targeting June at $1.75 trillion+ have sustained high private valuations, though daily fluctuations like Bloomberg's $695 billion snapshot underscore volatility; traders eye potential pre-resolution TSLA momentum or mark-to-market adjustments as key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated690b+ 39%
680-690b 16%
670-680b 14%
660-670b 8%
$18,440 Vol.
$18,440 Vol.
<610b
1%
610-620b
3%
620-630b
5%
630-640b
4%
640-650b
4%
650-660b
5%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
14%
680-690b
18%
690b+
50%
690b+ 39%
680-690b 16%
670-680b 14%
660-670b 8%
$18,440 Vol.
$18,440 Vol.
<610b
1%
610-620b
3%
620-630b
5%
630-640b
4%
640-650b
4%
650-660b
5%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
14%
680-690b
18%
690b+
50%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth exceeding $690 billion by May 31, driven primarily by Tesla's share price rally to around $443 as of May 14—up over 10% in the past month following Q1 2026 earnings that beat revenue estimates at $22.4 billion and EPS at $0.41 amid AI capex warnings. His roughly 12% Tesla stake, valued via real-time market cap, anchors much of the positioning, complemented by a 40-44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity at $1.03-$1.25 trillion post-February merger. Recent SpaceX IPO filings targeting June at $1.75 trillion+ have sustained high private valuations, though daily fluctuations like Bloomberg's $695 billion snapshot underscore volatility; traders eye potential pre-resolution TSLA momentum or mark-to-market adjustments as key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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