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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 27.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5%

Kamala Harris 7.1%

Jon Ossoff 6.6%

Polymarket

$1,060,105,324 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 27.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5%

Kamala Harris 7.1%

Jon Ossoff 6.6%

Polymarket

$1,060,105,324 Vol.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Gavin Newsom

$23,974,191 Vol.

27%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$12,417,710 Vol.

9%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Kamala Harris

$11,106,266 Vol.

7%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Jon Ossoff

$8,214,172 Vol.

7%

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Josh Shapiro

$7,194,031 Vol.

4%

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Pete Buttigieg

$10,120,198 Vol.

4%

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Mark Kelly

$12,915,980 Vol.

3%

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Andy Beshear

$11,127,098 Vol.

3%

Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Jon Stewart

$17,689,434 Vol.

2%

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

James Talarico

$8,775,328 Vol.

2%

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

J.B. Pritzker

$13,362,835 Vol.

2%

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Ro Khanna

$9,557,669 Vol.

2%

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Rahm Emanuel

$12,630,980 Vol.

1%

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$8,155,292 Vol.

1%

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Wes Moore

$14,712,806 Vol.

1%

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Stephen A. Smith

$18,871,036 Vol.

1%

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Michelle Obama

$23,101,236 Vol.

1%

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

John Fetterman

$17,834,410 Vol.

1%

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$10,665,917 Vol.

1%

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Oprah Winfrey

$45,863,741 Vol.

1%

Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Cory Booker

$22,638,279 Vol.

1%

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Ruben Gallego

$4,656,019 Vol.

1%

Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Mark Cuban

$20,304,423 Vol.

1%

Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Roy Cooper

$26,960,638 Vol.

1%

Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Liz Cheney

$34,655,504 Vol.

1%

Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Chelsea Clinton

$46,282,182 Vol.

1%

Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Chris Murphy

$13,082,894 Vol.

1%

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Raphael Warnock

$27,538,974 Vol.

1%

Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Barack Obama

$28,470,223 Vol.

1%

Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

George Clooney

$38,893,035 Vol.

1%

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Tim Walz

$38,489,786 Vol.

1%

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Zohran Mamdani

$34,579,395 Vol.

1%

Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Andrew Yang

$44,235,597 Vol.

1%

Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Jared Polis

$22,202,627 Vol.

1%

Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

LeBron James

$40,082,865 Vol.

1%

Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

MrBeast

$36,525,699 Vol.

1%

Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Hillary Clinton

$39,294,385 Vol.

1%

Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Gina Raimondo

$30,218,013 Vol.

1%

Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Beto O’Rourke

$36,311,981 Vol.

1%

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Kim Kardashian

$35,183,393 Vol.

1%

Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Phil Murphy

$37,486,955 Vol.

1%

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Hunter Biden

$33,516,680 Vol.

1%

Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Jasmine Crockett

$28,409,670 Vol.

1%

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? icon

Bernie Sanders

$42,002,072 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 27% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his term-limited status ending in 2026, national anti-Trump profile through media appearances and policy contrasts, and sustained prediction market favoritism amid post-2024 party rebuilding. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 9% on progressive appeal and youth, boosted by speculation despite her denials of a presidential focus. Former VP Kamala Harris lingers at 7% despite recent polling edges in surveys like YouGov's April 13 matchup showing her at 24%, following her April 10 remarks signaling openness to another White House bid and a South Carolina swing-state visit. This wide-open field, with no probabilities above 30%, hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes for governors and senators, early fundraising, and endorsements to consolidate support among key voting blocs like progressives and moderates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,060,105,324
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 27% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his term-limited status ending in 2026, national anti-Trump profile through media appearances and policy contrasts, and sustained prediction market favoritism amid post-2024 party rebuilding. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 9% on progressive appeal and youth, boosted by speculation despite her denials of a presidential focus. Former VP Kamala Harris lingers at 7% despite recent polling edges in surveys like YouGov's April 13 matchup showing her at 24%, following her April 10 remarks signaling openness to another White House bid and a South Carolina swing-state visit. This wide-open field, with no probabilities above 30%, hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes for governors and senators, early fundraising, and endorsements to consolidate support among key voting blocs like progressives and moderates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,060,105,324
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $1.1 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.