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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 27.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.6%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 5.5%

Polymarket

$1,031,212,943 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 27.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.6%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 5.5%

Polymarket

$1,031,212,943 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$22,278,140 Vol.

27%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$11,514,344 Vol.

9%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,982,202 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$9,636,319 Vol.

5%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,940,772 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,984,403 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$10,191,792 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$16,211,347 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$13,124,344 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$8,325,183 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$12,624,982 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$8,885,219 Vol.

2%

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Rahm Emanuel

$12,188,661 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,834,204 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,818,147 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$4,171,095 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$14,080,136 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$17,995,711 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,863,123 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,423,670 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,328,201 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,712,776 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,377,008 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$26,484,247 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$34,125,492 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$45,565,633 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$12,266,161 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,914,864 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$27,955,425 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$38,264,254 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,895,722 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$34,019,694 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,666,262 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$21,654,463 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,604,414 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$36,063,623 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,802,721 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$29,523,799 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$35,919,932 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$34,601,536 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$37,133,390 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$33,192,680 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$27,766,201 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$41,301,788 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads Polymarket trader consensus at 27.3% for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his commanding 28%-14% edge over Kamala Harris in a March UC Berkeley poll of California Democratic primary voters—home to a delegate-rich contest—and his national profile as a Trump critic via New Hampshire book tours. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.6% amid progressive surges in New Hampshire polling, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 5.9% reflects optimism over his Georgia Senate prospects. Harris at 5.5% faces Biden administration baggage highlighted at Rev. Al Sharpton's April convention, where the primary visibly intensified. Midterm outcomes for governors and senators, plus endorsements post-November 2026, could consolidate the wide-open field behind electability-tested contenders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,031,212,943
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads Polymarket trader consensus at 27.3% for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his commanding 28%-14% edge over Kamala Harris in a March UC Berkeley poll of California Democratic primary voters—home to a delegate-rich contest—and his national profile as a Trump critic via New Hampshire book tours. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.6% amid progressive surges in New Hampshire polling, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 5.9% reflects optimism over his Georgia Senate prospects. Harris at 5.5% faces Biden administration baggage highlighted at Rev. Al Sharpton's April convention, where the primary visibly intensified. Midterm outcomes for governors and senators, plus endorsements post-November 2026, could consolidate the wide-open field behind electability-tested contenders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,031,212,943
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $1 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.