Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability for Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.15 EPS and $714 million revenue, driven by the firm's track record of substantial beats—Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43 versus $0.16 expected, fueled by 72% year-over-year USDC circulation growth to $75.3 billion and 77% revenue surge to $770 million from reserve income. Recent USDC adoption momentum, including Circle Payments Network expansion, and positive Earnings Surprise Prediction metric of +11.83% bolster optimism, alongside Bernstein's Outperform rating with $190 price target citing regulatory clarity from the pending Senate CLARITY Act markup. Q1 results due pre-market May 11 remain the key catalyst amid crypto market rebound.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$5,002 Vol.
$5,002 Vol.
May 11, 2026
$5,002 Vol.
$5,002 Vol.
May 11, 2026
As of market creation, Circle Internet is estimated to release earnings on May 11, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Circle Internet's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.18 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle Internet reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Circle Internet releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability for Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.15 EPS and $714 million revenue, driven by the firm's track record of substantial beats—Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43 versus $0.16 expected, fueled by 72% year-over-year USDC circulation growth to $75.3 billion and 77% revenue surge to $770 million from reserve income. Recent USDC adoption momentum, including Circle Payments Network expansion, and positive Earnings Surprise Prediction metric of +11.83% bolster optimism, alongside Bernstein's Outperform rating with $190 price target citing regulatory clarity from the pending Senate CLARITY Act markup. Q1 results due pre-market May 11 remain the key catalyst amid crypto market rebound.
As of market creation, Circle Internet is estimated to release earnings on May 11, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Circle Internet's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.18 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle Internet reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Circle Internet releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Circle Internet releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volume
$5,002End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
As of market creation, Circle Internet is estimated to release earnings on May 11, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Circle Internet's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.18 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle Internet reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Circle Internet releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability for Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.15 EPS and $714 million revenue, driven by the firm's track record of substantial beats—Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43 versus $0.16 expected, fueled by 72% year-over-year USDC circulation growth to $75.3 billion and 77% revenue surge to $770 million from reserve income. Recent USDC adoption momentum, including Circle Payments Network expansion, and positive Earnings Surprise Prediction metric of +11.83% bolster optimism, alongside Bernstein's Outperform rating with $190 price target citing regulatory clarity from the pending Senate CLARITY Act markup. Q1 results due pre-market May 11 remain the key catalyst amid crypto market rebound.
As of market creation, Circle Internet is estimated to release earnings on May 11, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Circle Internet's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.18 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle Internet reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Circle Internet releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Circle Internet releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$5,002End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability for Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.15 EPS and $714 million revenue, driven by the firm's track record of substantial beats—Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43 versus $0.16 expected, fueled by 72% year-over-year USDC circulation growth to $75.3 billion and 77% revenue surge to $770 million from reserve income. Recent USDC adoption momentum, including Circle Payments Network expansion, and positive Earnings Surprise Prediction metric of +11.83% bolster optimism, alongside Bernstein's Outperform rating with $190 price target citing regulatory clarity from the pending Senate CLARITY Act markup. Q1 results due pre-market May 11 remain the key catalyst amid crypto market rebound.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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