Recent July 2026 Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied probabilities on 2.4% (47.0%) and 2.3% (31.5%). Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer core goods prices—particularly tariff-sensitive categories like apparel and household furnishings—and contained shelter inflation, partially offset by firmer services components such as vehicle maintenance and recreation. Persistent services pressures and potential labor-market or residual tariff upside risks limit conviction for a sharper drop to 2.2%, while the release scheduled for September 11 anchors the tight distribution around these levels amid broader disinflation trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.4% 47%
2.3% 32%
2.5% 12%
2.2% 9.6%
$23,736 Vol.
$23,736 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.0%
2%
2.1%
1%
2.2%
10%
2.3%
32%
2.4%
47%
2.5%
12%
2.6%
2%
2.7%
<1%
2.8%
1%
≥2.9%
1%
2.4% 47%
2.3% 32%
2.5% 12%
2.2% 9.6%
$23,736 Vol.
$23,736 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.0%
$520 Vol.
2%
2.1%
$520 Vol.
1%
2.2%
$741 Vol.
10%
2.3%
$2,408 Vol.
32%
2.4%
$12,829 Vol.
47%
2.5%
$3,014 Vol.
12%
2.6%
$997 Vol.
2%
2.7%
$1,146 Vol.
<1%
2.8%
$1,006 Vol.
1%
≥2.9%
$555 Vol.
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied probabilities on 2.4% (47.0%) and 2.3% (31.5%). Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer core goods prices—particularly tariff-sensitive categories like apparel and household furnishings—and contained shelter inflation, partially offset by firmer services components such as vehicle maintenance and recreation. Persistent services pressures and potential labor-market or residual tariff upside risks limit conviction for a sharper drop to 2.2%, while the release scheduled for September 11 anchors the tight distribution around these levels amid broader disinflation trends.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$23,736End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied probabilities on 2.4% (47.0%) and 2.3% (31.5%). Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer core goods prices—particularly tariff-sensitive categories like apparel and household furnishings—and contained shelter inflation, partially offset by firmer services components such as vehicle maintenance and recreation. Persistent services pressures and potential labor-market or residual tariff upside risks limit conviction for a sharper drop to 2.2%, while the release scheduled for September 11 anchors the tight distribution around these levels amid broader disinflation trends.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$23,736End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 Core CPI at 2.5% YoY, following 2.6% in June, combined with Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 2.38% for August, has concentrated Polymarket-implied probabilities on 2.4% (47.0%) and 2.3% (31.5%). Traders are pricing in further moderation from softer core goods prices—particularly tariff-sensitive categories like apparel and household furnishings—and contained shelter inflation, partially offset by firmer services components such as vehicle maintenance and recreation. Persistent services pressures and potential labor-market or residual tariff upside risks limit conviction for a sharper drop to 2.2%, while the release scheduled for September 11 anchors the tight distribution around these levels amid broader disinflation trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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