**Barb Kirkmeyer holds a narrow lead over Victor Marx in the June 30, 2026, Colorado Republican primary for governor, with the race too close to call after roughly 88-90% of votes were counted.** Kirkmeyer sits at approximately 39.9% (186k votes) and Marx at 39.7% (185k votes), a gap of fewer than 1,800 votes out of 466k cast—well under 0.5 percentage points—while state Rep. Scott Bottoms trails with about 20.4%. Write-in candidate Kelvin Wimberly received negligible support. The market’s clustered probabilities across sub-1%, 1-2%, 2-3%, and 3-4% margins for either Kirkmeyer or Marx, alongside elevated pricing on “Other,” reflect trader uncertainty over final certified results and any late-counted ballots or challenges. Kirkmeyer, a state senator with establishment backing, benefits from stronger organizational support in key counties, while Marx, a ministry leader and political newcomer positioned as a more populist/MAGA-aligned candidate, led in fundraising and outside spending but fell short in early returns. Bottoms’s roughly one-fifth share of the vote split the field and kept the top-two contest razor-thin. Ongoing tabulation of remaining ballots, primarily from rural and suburban areas, will determine whether the margin stays below 1% or widens slightly. Absent major discrepancies, recounts, or legal disputes, the outcome hinges on the final statewide canvass expected in the coming days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedColorado Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Colorado Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Marx <1% 100.0%
Kirkmeyer 4%+ <1%
Kirkmeyer 3–4% <1%
Kirkmeyer 2–3% <1%
$22,954 Vol.
$22,954 Vol.
Kirkmeyer 4%+
No
Kirkmeyer 3–4%
No
Kirkmeyer 2–3%
No
Kirkmeyer 1–2%
No
Kirkmeyer <1%
No
Marx <1%
Yes
Marx 1–2%
No
Marx 2–3%
No
Marx 3–4%
No
Marx 4%+
No
Marx <1% 100.0%
Kirkmeyer 4%+ <1%
Kirkmeyer 3–4% <1%
Kirkmeyer 2–3% <1%
$22,954 Vol.
$22,954 Vol.
Kirkmeyer 4%+
$335 Vol.
No
Kirkmeyer 3–4%
$905 Vol.
No
Kirkmeyer 2–3%
$635 Vol.
No
Kirkmeyer 1–2%
$10,116 Vol.
No
Kirkmeyer <1%
$499 Vol.
No
Marx <1%
$8,553 Vol.
Yes
Marx 1–2%
$387 Vol.
No
Marx 2–3%
$573 Vol.
No
Marx 3–4%
$552 Vol.
No
Marx 4%+
$399 Vol.
No
The Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election was held on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Barb Kirkmeyer holds a narrow lead over Victor Marx in the June 30, 2026, Colorado Republican primary for governor, with the race too close to call after roughly 88-90% of votes were counted.** Kirkmeyer sits at approximately 39.9% (186k votes) and Marx at 39.7% (185k votes), a gap of fewer than 1,800 votes out of 466k cast—well under 0.5 percentage points—while state Rep. Scott Bottoms trails with about 20.4%. Write-in candidate Kelvin Wimberly received negligible support.
The market’s clustered probabilities across sub-1%, 1-2%, 2-3%, and 3-4% margins for either Kirkmeyer or Marx, alongside elevated pricing on “Other,” reflect trader uncertainty over final certified results and any late-counted ballots or challenges. Kirkmeyer, a state senator with establishment backing, benefits from stronger organizational support in key counties, while Marx, a ministry leader and political newcomer positioned as a more populist/MAGA-aligned candidate, led in fundraising and outside spending but fell short in early returns. Bottoms’s roughly one-fifth share of the vote split the field and kept the top-two contest razor-thin.
Ongoing tabulation of remaining ballots, primarily from rural and suburban areas, will determine whether the margin stays below 1% or widens slightly. Absent major discrepancies, recounts, or legal disputes, the outcome hinges on the final statewide canvass expected in the coming days.
The Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election was held on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$22,954Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election was held on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Barb Kirkmeyer holds a narrow lead over Victor Marx in the June 30, 2026, Colorado Republican primary for governor, with the race too close to call after roughly 88-90% of votes were counted.** Kirkmeyer sits at approximately 39.9% (186k votes) and Marx at 39.7% (185k votes), a gap of fewer than 1,800 votes out of 466k cast—well under 0.5 percentage points—while state Rep. Scott Bottoms trails with about 20.4%. Write-in candidate Kelvin Wimberly received negligible support.
The market’s clustered probabilities across sub-1%, 1-2%, 2-3%, and 3-4% margins for either Kirkmeyer or Marx, alongside elevated pricing on “Other,” reflect trader uncertainty over final certified results and any late-counted ballots or challenges. Kirkmeyer, a state senator with establishment backing, benefits from stronger organizational support in key counties, while Marx, a ministry leader and political newcomer positioned as a more populist/MAGA-aligned candidate, led in fundraising and outside spending but fell short in early returns. Bottoms’s roughly one-fifth share of the vote split the field and kept the top-two contest razor-thin.
Ongoing tabulation of remaining ballots, primarily from rural and suburban areas, will determine whether the margin stays below 1% or widens slightly. Absent major discrepancies, recounts, or legal disputes, the outcome hinges on the final statewide canvass expected in the coming days.
The Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election was held on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$22,954Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Barb Kirkmeyer holds a narrow lead over Victor Marx in the June 30, 2026, Colorado Republican primary for governor, with the race too close to call after roughly 88-90% of votes were counted.** Kirkmeyer sits at approximately 39.9% (186k votes) and Marx at 39.7% (185k votes), a gap of fewer than 1,800 votes out of 466k cast—well under 0.5 percentage points—while state Rep. Scott Bottoms trails with about 20.4%. Write-in candidate Kelvin Wimberly received negligible support. The market’s clustered probabilities across sub-1%, 1-2%, 2-3%, and 3-4% margins for either Kirkmeyer or Marx, alongside elevated pricing on “Other,” reflect trader uncertainty over final certified results and any late-counted ballots or challenges. Kirkmeyer, a state senator with establishment backing, benefits from stronger organizational support in key counties, while Marx, a ministry leader and political newcomer positioned as a more populist/MAGA-aligned candidate, led in fundraising and outside spending but fell short in early returns. Bottoms’s roughly one-fifth share of the vote split the field and kept the top-two contest razor-thin. Ongoing tabulation of remaining ballots, primarily from rural and suburban areas, will determine whether the margin stays below 1% or widens slightly. Absent major discrepancies, recounts, or legal disputes, the outcome hinges on the final statewide canvass expected in the coming days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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