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Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

icon for Colombia Presidential Election
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Abelardo de la Espriella 86%

Iván Cepeda Castro 14%

Vicky Dávila (IND) <1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%

Polymarket

$36,341,019 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella 86%

Iván Cepeda Castro 14%

Vicky Dávila (IND) <1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%

Polymarket

$36,341,019 Vol.

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$3,246,558 Vol.

86%

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$3,153,854 Vol.

14%

icon for Vicky Dávila (IND)

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$3,018,077 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,926,534 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López (IND)

Claudia López (IND)

$1,207,052 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez (IND)

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,850,813 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$1,534,890 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$5,794,849 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergio Fajardo (DC)

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$2,393,093 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$769,121 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,525,323 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$706,339 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$1,230,962 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,313,099 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$478,115 Vol.

<1%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$2,674,635 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Felipe Córdoba

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$709,130 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Abelardo de la Espriella’s commanding position in the Colombia presidential election stems from his unexpected first-round victory on May 31, where he captured 43.7 percent against Iván Cepeda’s 40.9 percent, advancing both to the June 21 runoff. Traders price de la Espriella at 85.5 percent because right-wing voters consolidated behind his outsider, hardline security platform after center-right candidate Paloma Valencia was eliminated. Cepeda, backed by the ruling Historic Pact and positioned as a continuation of incumbent Gustavo Petro’s agenda, trails in runoff polling despite advancing. Other listed candidates remain below 1 percent as the contest has narrowed to these two frontrunners under Colombia’s two-round electoral system.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$36,341,019
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Abelardo de la Espriella’s commanding position in the Colombia presidential election stems from his unexpected first-round victory on May 31, where he captured 43.7 percent against Iván Cepeda’s 40.9 percent, advancing both to the June 21 runoff. Traders price de la Espriella at 85.5 percent because right-wing voters consolidated behind his outsider, hardline security platform after center-right candidate Paloma Valencia was eliminated. Cepeda, backed by the ruling Historic Pact and positioned as a continuation of incumbent Gustavo Petro’s agenda, trails in runoff polling despite advancing. Other listed candidates remain below 1 percent as the contest has narrowed to these two frontrunners under Colombia’s two-round electoral system.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$36,341,019
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Related

icon for Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

95%
icon for Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?

1%
icon for Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

59%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 86%, followed by "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Presidential Election" has generated $36.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election" is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.