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icon for Claude 5 released by…?
Tech·AI

Claude 5 released by…?

icon for Claude 5 released by…?
Tech·AI

Claude 5 released by…?

$3,608,394 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,608,394 Vol.

Polymarket

May 31, 2026

$410,474 Vol.

7%

June 30, 2026

$240,180 Vol.

26%

September 30, 2026

$12,462 Vol.

77%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Claude 5 release by September 30, 2026 (94% implied probability), with slim odds for May 31 (8%) or June 30 (26%), reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration on the Claude 4.x family amid no official Claude 5 announcement. The April 16 launch of Claude Opus 4.7—excelling in coding, vision, and agentic tasks—plus May 4-6 expansions like financial agents, creative tools, enterprise partnerships with Blackstone, and massive compute deals (Amazon's 5 gigawatts, SpaceX capacity) signal infrastructure scaling for frontier models, but prioritize deploying current capabilities over a full generational leap. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release underscores urgency, yet Anthropic's AI safety commitments (e.g., ASL-4 sabotage reports) and historical cadence suggest delays; watch for Q2 developer events or benchmarks that could shift near-term odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,608,394
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Claude 5 release by September 30, 2026 (94% implied probability), with slim odds for May 31 (8%) or June 30 (26%), reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration on the Claude 4.x family amid no official Claude 5 announcement. The April 16 launch of Claude Opus 4.7—excelling in coding, vision, and agentic tasks—plus May 4-6 expansions like financial agents, creative tools, enterprise partnerships with Blackstone, and massive compute deals (Amazon's 5 gigawatts, SpaceX capacity) signal infrastructure scaling for frontier models, but prioritize deploying current capabilities over a full generational leap. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release underscores urgency, yet Anthropic's AI safety commitments (e.g., ASL-4 sabotage reports) and historical cadence suggest delays; watch for Q2 developer events or benchmarks that could shift near-term odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,608,394
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Claude 5 released by…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 30, 2026" at 77%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Claude 5 released by…?" has generated $3.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Claude 5 released by…?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Claude 5 released by…?" is "September 30, 2026" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Claude 5 released by…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.