Sustained diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including the September 2026 Xi-Trump summit and extended trade truce, has reinforced trader expectations of continued restraint on the Taiwan question. Chinese officials continue to emphasize peaceful reunification while conducting routine gray-zone activities such as air-defense identification zone incursions and coast guard patrols, without crossing into open hostilities. U.S. assessments highlight delays in People's Liberation Army readiness tied to anti-corruption efforts and Beijing's interest in awaiting Taiwan's 2028 elections before considering force. This combination of factors underpins the 95.5% implied probability against a clash before 2027. Plausible shifts could still arise from an unplanned maritime incident during live-fire drills, abrupt changes in U.S. policy, or rapid deterioration in cross-strait signaling.