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icon for Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

icon for Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?

$21,974 Vol.

Jul 18, 2026
Polymarket

$21,974 Vol.

Polymarket

July 18

$5,277 Vol.

No

July 19

$9,571 Vol.

No

July 20

$3,384 Vol.

No

July 21

$3,742 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Wildfire smoke from Canadian and Minnesota fires, combined with elevated ground-level ozone, has driven Chicago's AQI into hazardous territory above 300–400 in recent days, far exceeding the 100 threshold. PM2.5 particulates from transported smoke dominate readings alongside ozone formed when nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds react under intense summer sunlight and heat, as monitored by the EPA's AirNow.gov and Illinois EPA networks. NWS alerts highlight marine and temperature inversions trapping pollutants near Lake Michigan. Daily AirNow forecasts and model updates on wind patterns could signal clearing by late July 18–19 if dispersion improves, though persistent heat may sustain ozone risks. Trader sentiment reflects these short-term meteorological shifts and official monitoring thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column.

This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$21,974
End Date
Jul 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Wildfire smoke from Canadian and Minnesota fires, combined with elevated ground-level ozone, has driven Chicago's AQI into hazardous territory above 300–400 in recent days, far exceeding the 100 threshold. PM2.5 particulates from transported smoke dominate readings alongside ozone formed when nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds react under intense summer sunlight and heat, as monitored by the EPA's AirNow.gov and Illinois EPA networks. NWS alerts highlight marine and temperature inversions trapping pollutants near Lake Michigan. Daily AirNow forecasts and model updates on wind patterns could signal clearing by late July 18–19 if dispersion improves, though persistent heat may sustain ozone risks. Trader sentiment reflects these short-term meteorological shifts and official monitoring thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column.

This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$21,974
End Date
Jul 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chicago" has a PM2.5 Air Quality Index of below 100 between July 17, 2026 and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column. This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "July 21" at 100%, followed by "July 18" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" has generated $22K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" is "July 21" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "July 18" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.