Wildfire smoke from Canadian and Minnesota fires, combined with elevated ground-level ozone, has driven Chicago's AQI into hazardous territory above 300–400 in recent days, far exceeding the 100 threshold. PM2.5 particulates from transported smoke dominate readings alongside ozone formed when nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds react under intense summer sunlight and heat, as monitored by the EPA's AirNow.gov and Illinois EPA networks. NWS alerts highlight marine and temperature inversions trapping pollutants near Lake Michigan. Daily AirNow forecasts and model updates on wind patterns could signal clearing by late July 18–19 if dispersion improves, though persistent heat may sustain ozone risks. Trader sentiment reflects these short-term meteorological shifts and official monitoring thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChicago Air Quality Index below 100 by...?
$21,974 Vol.
July 18
No
July 19
No
July 20
No
July 21
Yes
$21,974 Vol.
July 18
No
July 19
No
July 20
No
July 21
Yes
This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column.
This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinoisResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market's resolution source will be https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinois. To get to the figures used to resolve this market, select the "Historical Air Quality" tab, then find the finalized figure for the"Chicago" row under the "Daily AQI for PM2.5" column.
This market may remain open for two days after the specified date to confirm the daily AQI figures for the specified timeframe. If the figures remain unavailable, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution Source
https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=illinoisResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Wildfire smoke from Canadian and Minnesota fires, combined with elevated ground-level ozone, has driven Chicago's AQI into hazardous territory above 300–400 in recent days, far exceeding the 100 threshold. PM2.5 particulates from transported smoke dominate readings alongside ozone formed when nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds react under intense summer sunlight and heat, as monitored by the EPA's AirNow.gov and Illinois EPA networks. NWS alerts highlight marine and temperature inversions trapping pollutants near Lake Michigan. Daily AirNow forecasts and model updates on wind patterns could signal clearing by late July 18–19 if dispersion improves, though persistent heat may sustain ozone risks. Trader sentiment reflects these short-term meteorological shifts and official monitoring thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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