Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase by the Banco de la República at its September 30, 2026 meeting, reflecting sustained inflationary pressures and elevated expectations. Recent data show inflation indicators maintaining an upward trajectory, with end-2026 forecasts rising to 6.6% and market-based measures remaining above 6.0%, while economic activity continues to exceed levels consistent with the 3% target without generating further price momentum. The policy rate has held at 12% since mid-2026 amid these conditions, aligning the market-implied path with official communications on monetary tightening. A shift in incoming inflation prints or labor market indicators toward faster disinflation could still alter positioning ahead of the decision.