Ontario Premier Doug Ford's recent threats to restrict electricity exports in retaliation for U.S. tariffs under President Trump have drawn attention to cross-border power flows, which supply portions of New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. However, no actual cutoff or throttling has occurred, and prior similar warnings in 2025 were quickly suspended amid negotiations. Grid operators emphasize alternative domestic sources and thermal reserves that limit disruption risks, while ongoing bilateral trade talks and mutual economic reliance on integrated grids reduce escalation incentives. Traders assign a 94.5% probability to no cutoff by year-end, reflecting the gap between provincial rhetoric and the practical, regulatory, and diplomatic barriers to implementation before the deadline.