Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain pricing for "No" at 100% implied probability following Blackstone's (BX) Q1 2026 earnings release on April 23, driven by reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.83, a substantial miss against the $1.34 Street consensus at market creation. This gap stems from non-cash charges on fee-related performance revenues, common in alternative asset management amid $1.30 trillion AUM growth and $68.5 billion inflows. Revenue beat estimates at $3.62 billion versus $3.40 billion expected, and distributable EPS of $1.36 topped forecasts, yet resolution hinges strictly on GAAP metric. Tail risks include rare post-release revisions or data errors, improbable given official filings; earnings call later today may refine forward guidance on realizations and private credit trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,863 Vol.
$11,863 Vol.
Apr 23, 2026
$11,863 Vol.
$11,863 Vol.
Apr 23, 2026
As of market creation, Blackstone is estimated to release earnings on April 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Blackstone's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blackstone reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Blackstone releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain pricing for "No" at 100% implied probability following Blackstone's (BX) Q1 2026 earnings release on April 23, driven by reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.83, a substantial miss against the $1.34 Street consensus at market creation. This gap stems from non-cash charges on fee-related performance revenues, common in alternative asset management amid $1.30 trillion AUM growth and $68.5 billion inflows. Revenue beat estimates at $3.62 billion versus $3.40 billion expected, and distributable EPS of $1.36 topped forecasts, yet resolution hinges strictly on GAAP metric. Tail risks include rare post-release revisions or data errors, improbable given official filings; earnings call later today may refine forward guidance on realizations and private credit trends.
As of market creation, Blackstone is estimated to release earnings on April 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Blackstone's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blackstone reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Blackstone releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Blackstone releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
Volume
$11,863End Date
Apr 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
As of market creation, Blackstone is estimated to release earnings on April 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Blackstone's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blackstone reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Blackstone releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain pricing for "No" at 100% implied probability following Blackstone's (BX) Q1 2026 earnings release on April 23, driven by reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.83, a substantial miss against the $1.34 Street consensus at market creation. This gap stems from non-cash charges on fee-related performance revenues, common in alternative asset management amid $1.30 trillion AUM growth and $68.5 billion inflows. Revenue beat estimates at $3.62 billion versus $3.40 billion expected, and distributable EPS of $1.36 topped forecasts, yet resolution hinges strictly on GAAP metric. Tail risks include rare post-release revisions or data errors, improbable given official filings; earnings call later today may refine forward guidance on realizations and private credit trends.
As of market creation, Blackstone is estimated to release earnings on April 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Blackstone's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blackstone reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Blackstone releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Blackstone releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$11,863End Date
Apr 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain pricing for "No" at 100% implied probability following Blackstone's (BX) Q1 2026 earnings release on April 23, driven by reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.83, a substantial miss against the $1.34 Street consensus at market creation. This gap stems from non-cash charges on fee-related performance revenues, common in alternative asset management amid $1.30 trillion AUM growth and $68.5 billion inflows. Revenue beat estimates at $3.62 billion versus $3.40 billion expected, and distributable EPS of $1.36 topped forecasts, yet resolution hinges strictly on GAAP metric. Tail risks include rare post-release revisions or data errors, improbable given official filings; earnings call later today may refine forward guidance on realizations and private credit trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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