Flávio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in São Paulo polling for first place in the October 4 first round, with recent state surveys such as Quaest showing him at 31% against Lula at 30% and all other candidates in single digits. Traders cite his consolidation of right-leaning support following the Liberal Party convention in the state, combined with national momentum from a Supreme Court controversy that has energized conservative voters. São Paulo’s large electorate amplifies these trends, where his emphasis on security and economic issues has maintained a consistent edge over a fragmented field. Lula remains the main challenger but trails in local intent, while minor candidates including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register too low to threaten the lead under current conditions. The first-round outcome in the state will resolve based on official vote tallies once certified.