Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Roraima for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round due to the northern state's consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. Recent state-level polling from Quaest and Real Time shows him at 52-62% support, far ahead of Lula at 17-18% and other candidates in single digits, reflecting Roraima's strong right-wing electorate and prior heavy margins for Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his father, benefits from local conservative priorities on security, federal spending, and environmental licensing. National developments such as Supreme Court scrutiny have further energized his base without eroding state-level dominance. A late scandal, sharp turnout drop among core supporters, or unexpected consolidation behind another conservative contender could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural barriers against such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Lula 2.1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Lula 2.1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,572 Vol.
97%
Lula
$662 Vol.
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$429 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$565 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$422 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$498 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$528 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$492 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$448 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$448 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$448 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$416 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Roraima for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round due to the northern state's consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. Recent state-level polling from Quaest and Real Time shows him at 52-62% support, far ahead of Lula at 17-18% and other candidates in single digits, reflecting Roraima's strong right-wing electorate and prior heavy margins for Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his father, benefits from local conservative priorities on security, federal spending, and environmental licensing. National developments such as Supreme Court scrutiny have further energized his base without eroding state-level dominance. A late scandal, sharp turnout drop among core supporters, or unexpected consolidation behind another conservative contender could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural barriers against such shifts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$9,344End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Roraima for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round due to the northern state's consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. Recent state-level polling from Quaest and Real Time shows him at 52-62% support, far ahead of Lula at 17-18% and other candidates in single digits, reflecting Roraima's strong right-wing electorate and prior heavy margins for Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his father, benefits from local conservative priorities on security, federal spending, and environmental licensing. National developments such as Supreme Court scrutiny have further energized his base without eroding state-level dominance. A late scandal, sharp turnout drop among core supporters, or unexpected consolidation behind another conservative contender could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural barriers against such shifts.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,344End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Roraima for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round due to the northern state's consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. Recent state-level polling from Quaest and Real Time shows him at 52-62% support, far ahead of Lula at 17-18% and other candidates in single digits, reflecting Roraima's strong right-wing electorate and prior heavy margins for Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his father, benefits from local conservative priorities on security, federal spending, and environmental licensing. National developments such as Supreme Court scrutiny have further energized his base without eroding state-level dominance. A late scandal, sharp turnout drop among core supporters, or unexpected consolidation behind another conservative contender could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural barriers against such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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