Rondônia’s electorate has long favored the Liberal Party and the Bolsonaro movement, delivering Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin over Lula in the 2022 first round. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed Flavio Bolsonaro at 58 percent in the state versus Lula’s 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by the party’s coordinated slate for governor and Senate seats, underpins trader consensus that Flavio will finish first on October 4. National polling volatility and a recent corruption investigation have not materially altered local preferences. Only an unforeseen late scandal or coordinated opposition consolidation would realistically alter the outcome before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.5%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$16,493 Vol.
$16,493 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Lula
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.5%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Renan Santos <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$16,493 Vol.
$16,493 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,929 Vol.
98%
Edmilson Costa
$490 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$490 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$560 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$621 Vol.
1%
Lula
$663 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$539 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$480 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$580 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$530 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$550 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$535 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$525 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Rondônia’s electorate has long favored the Liberal Party and the Bolsonaro movement, delivering Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin over Lula in the 2022 first round. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed Flavio Bolsonaro at 58 percent in the state versus Lula’s 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by the party’s coordinated slate for governor and Senate seats, underpins trader consensus that Flavio will finish first on October 4. National polling volatility and a recent corruption investigation have not materially altered local preferences. Only an unforeseen late scandal or coordinated opposition consolidation would realistically alter the outcome before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$16,493End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Rondônia’s electorate has long favored the Liberal Party and the Bolsonaro movement, delivering Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin over Lula in the 2022 first round. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed Flavio Bolsonaro at 58 percent in the state versus Lula’s 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by the party’s coordinated slate for governor and Senate seats, underpins trader consensus that Flavio will finish first on October 4. National polling volatility and a recent corruption investigation have not materially altered local preferences. Only an unforeseen late scandal or coordinated opposition consolidation would realistically alter the outcome before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,493End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rondônia’s electorate has long favored the Liberal Party and the Bolsonaro movement, delivering Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin over Lula in the 2022 first round. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed Flavio Bolsonaro at 58 percent in the state versus Lula’s 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by the party’s coordinated slate for governor and Senate seats, underpins trader consensus that Flavio will finish first on October 4. National polling volatility and a recent corruption investigation have not materially altered local preferences. Only an unforeseen late scandal or coordinated opposition consolidation would realistically alter the outcome before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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