Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by his birth in the state and longstanding strength across the Northeast region, where Workers' Party support remains robust. Recent Quaest polling from early September shows him at 51-54% in the state, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 20-21% and other names such as Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by government approval trends in the area, underpins trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign events, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or rulings on candidate eligibility by the TSE, though no such developments have materially altered the polling gap in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Lula 97.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.5%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$10,020 Vol.
$10,020 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Zema
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 97.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.5%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$10,020 Vol.
$10,020 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,097 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$392 Vol.
2%
Zema
$291 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$314 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$314 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$318 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$329 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$406 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$329 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$286 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$285 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$329 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$329 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by his birth in the state and longstanding strength across the Northeast region, where Workers' Party support remains robust. Recent Quaest polling from early September shows him at 51-54% in the state, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 20-21% and other names such as Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by government approval trends in the area, underpins trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign events, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or rulings on candidate eligibility by the TSE, though no such developments have materially altered the polling gap in recent weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$10,020End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by his birth in the state and longstanding strength across the Northeast region, where Workers' Party support remains robust. Recent Quaest polling from early September shows him at 51-54% in the state, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 20-21% and other names such as Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by government approval trends in the area, underpins trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign events, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or rulings on candidate eligibility by the TSE, though no such developments have materially altered the polling gap in recent weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,020End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election first round, driven by his birth in the state and longstanding strength across the Northeast region, where Workers' Party support remains robust. Recent Quaest polling from early September shows him at 51-54% in the state, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 20-21% and other names such as Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. This regional base, reinforced by government approval trends in the area, underpins trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign events, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or rulings on candidate eligibility by the TSE, though no such developments have materially altered the polling gap in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions