Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Paraná for first place in Brazil’s October 4 presidential first round, with recent state-specific polling showing him at 44-45% against Lula’s 29-31% and all other candidates below 5%. Paraná’s consistent right-leaning electorate, evidenced by Jair Bolsonaro’s strong 2022 performance there, underpins this lead for the PL nominee and son of the former president. Multiple Real Time Big Data surveys through early September confirm the gap, while national races remain tighter amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Trader consensus reflects these localized results and structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or unforeseen campaign developments could still narrow the margin before resolution by the TSE.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 2.1%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,774 Vol.
$10,774 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
2%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Zema
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Samara
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 2.1%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,774 Vol.
$10,774 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,051 Vol.
97%
Lula
$425 Vol.
2%
Renan Santos
$401 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$596 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$606 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$652 Vol.
1%
Zema
$582 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$473 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$646 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$527 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$542 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$637 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$635 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Paraná for first place in Brazil’s October 4 presidential first round, with recent state-specific polling showing him at 44-45% against Lula’s 29-31% and all other candidates below 5%. Paraná’s consistent right-leaning electorate, evidenced by Jair Bolsonaro’s strong 2022 performance there, underpins this lead for the PL nominee and son of the former president. Multiple Real Time Big Data surveys through early September confirm the gap, while national races remain tighter amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Trader consensus reflects these localized results and structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or unforeseen campaign developments could still narrow the margin before resolution by the TSE.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$10,774End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Paraná for first place in Brazil’s October 4 presidential first round, with recent state-specific polling showing him at 44-45% against Lula’s 29-31% and all other candidates below 5%. Paraná’s consistent right-leaning electorate, evidenced by Jair Bolsonaro’s strong 2022 performance there, underpins this lead for the PL nominee and son of the former president. Multiple Real Time Big Data surveys through early September confirm the gap, while national races remain tighter amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Trader consensus reflects these localized results and structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or unforeseen campaign developments could still narrow the margin before resolution by the TSE.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,774End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Paraná for first place in Brazil’s October 4 presidential first round, with recent state-specific polling showing him at 44-45% against Lula’s 29-31% and all other candidates below 5%. Paraná’s consistent right-leaning electorate, evidenced by Jair Bolsonaro’s strong 2022 performance there, underpins this lead for the PL nominee and son of the former president. Multiple Real Time Big Data surveys through early September confirm the gap, while national races remain tighter amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Trader consensus reflects these localized results and structural advantages, though late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or unforeseen campaign developments could still narrow the margin before resolution by the TSE.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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