Lula maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Pará's presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads of roughly eight points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and AtlasIntel. As the incumbent PT president, Lula benefits from established support networks, federal program delivery, and regional dynamics in the northern state ahead of the October 4 vote. Other listed candidates register minimal shares in available data. With implied probabilities above 90 percent, shifts remain possible through late campaign developments, voter turnout changes in key municipalities, or unforeseen national events that could compress the margin before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 91%
Flavio Bolsonaro 5.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 3.0%
Hertz Dias <1%
$19,776 Vol.
$19,776 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
91%
Flavio Bolsonaro
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
3%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 91%
Flavio Bolsonaro 5.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 3.0%
Hertz Dias <1%
$19,776 Vol.
$19,776 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$10,428 Vol.
91%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,234 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$588 Vol.
3%
Hertz Dias
$862 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$560 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,294 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$690 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$668 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$663 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$703 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$989 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Pará's presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads of roughly eight points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and AtlasIntel. As the incumbent PT president, Lula benefits from established support networks, federal program delivery, and regional dynamics in the northern state ahead of the October 4 vote. Other listed candidates register minimal shares in available data. With implied probabilities above 90 percent, shifts remain possible through late campaign developments, voter turnout changes in key municipalities, or unforeseen national events that could compress the margin before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$19,776End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Pará's presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads of roughly eight points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and AtlasIntel. As the incumbent PT president, Lula benefits from established support networks, federal program delivery, and regional dynamics in the northern state ahead of the October 4 vote. Other listed candidates register minimal shares in available data. With implied probabilities above 90 percent, shifts remain possible through late campaign developments, voter turnout changes in key municipalities, or unforeseen national events that could compress the margin before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,776End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Pará's presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling leads of roughly eight points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and AtlasIntel. As the incumbent PT president, Lula benefits from established support networks, federal program delivery, and regional dynamics in the northern state ahead of the October 4 vote. Other listed candidates register minimal shares in available data. With implied probabilities above 90 percent, shifts remain possible through late campaign developments, voter turnout changes in key municipalities, or unforeseen national events that could compress the margin before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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