Lula holds the strongest position in Minas Gerais for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by multiple state polls showing him ahead or competitive against Flavio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury. Traders appear to weigh Lula’s incumbency advantage and earlier double-digit leads in Datatempo and Quaest surveys for the state, even as more recent national and regional data indicate a tightening race with high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Bolsonaro benefits from conservative consolidation but trails in most MG-specific samples, while lower-polling candidates split opposition votes without threatening the top spot. This dynamic aligns with the elevated implied probability for Lula and more modest odds for his main challenger in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 79%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$19,426 Vol.
$19,426 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
79%
Flavio Bolsonaro
22%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 79%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$19,426 Vol.
$19,426 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,598 Vol.
79%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,290 Vol.
22%
Pablo Marçal
$1,452 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$844 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$1,951 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Minas Gerais for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by multiple state polls showing him ahead or competitive against Flavio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury. Traders appear to weigh Lula’s incumbency advantage and earlier double-digit leads in Datatempo and Quaest surveys for the state, even as more recent national and regional data indicate a tightening race with high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Bolsonaro benefits from conservative consolidation but trails in most MG-specific samples, while lower-polling candidates split opposition votes without threatening the top spot. This dynamic aligns with the elevated implied probability for Lula and more modest odds for his main challenger in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$19,426End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Minas Gerais for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by multiple state polls showing him ahead or competitive against Flavio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury. Traders appear to weigh Lula’s incumbency advantage and earlier double-digit leads in Datatempo and Quaest surveys for the state, even as more recent national and regional data indicate a tightening race with high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Bolsonaro benefits from conservative consolidation but trails in most MG-specific samples, while lower-polling candidates split opposition votes without threatening the top spot. This dynamic aligns with the elevated implied probability for Lula and more modest odds for his main challenger in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,426End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds the strongest position in Minas Gerais for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by multiple state polls showing him ahead or competitive against Flavio Bolsonaro amid a fragmented field that includes Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury. Traders appear to weigh Lula’s incumbency advantage and earlier double-digit leads in Datatempo and Quaest surveys for the state, even as more recent national and regional data indicate a tightening race with high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Bolsonaro benefits from conservative consolidation but trails in most MG-specific samples, while lower-polling candidates split opposition votes without threatening the top spot. This dynamic aligns with the elevated implied probability for Lula and more modest odds for his main challenger in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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