Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso for first place in the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 10–15 points or more over Lula in the agricultural Center-West state. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Percent Brasil show the PL candidate at 40–47% in stimulated scenarios, with Lula trailing in the mid-to-high 20s and all other names—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury—remaining in single digits. This positioning stems from regional voter preferences favoring the Liberal Party ticket, Flávio’s formal nomination and running-mate selection in mid-2026, and limited inroads by national alternatives in the state. Trader consensus at 95.5% for his first-place finish aligns with these patterns, though late national shifts, turnout changes among undecided voters, or unexpected momentum for secondary candidates could still alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 96%
Lula 2.4%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$10,133 Vol.
$10,133 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Lula
2%
Zema
1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 96%
Lula 2.4%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$10,133 Vol.
$10,133 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,646 Vol.
96%
Lula
$1,490 Vol.
2%
Zema
$613 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$365 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$475 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$391 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$449 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$566 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$395 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$444 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$408 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$401 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso for first place in the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 10–15 points or more over Lula in the agricultural Center-West state. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Percent Brasil show the PL candidate at 40–47% in stimulated scenarios, with Lula trailing in the mid-to-high 20s and all other names—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury—remaining in single digits. This positioning stems from regional voter preferences favoring the Liberal Party ticket, Flávio’s formal nomination and running-mate selection in mid-2026, and limited inroads by national alternatives in the state. Trader consensus at 95.5% for his first-place finish aligns with these patterns, though late national shifts, turnout changes among undecided voters, or unexpected momentum for secondary candidates could still alter the outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$10,133End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso for first place in the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 10–15 points or more over Lula in the agricultural Center-West state. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Percent Brasil show the PL candidate at 40–47% in stimulated scenarios, with Lula trailing in the mid-to-high 20s and all other names—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury—remaining in single digits. This positioning stems from regional voter preferences favoring the Liberal Party ticket, Flávio’s formal nomination and running-mate selection in mid-2026, and limited inroads by national alternatives in the state. Trader consensus at 95.5% for his first-place finish aligns with these patterns, though late national shifts, turnout changes among undecided voters, or unexpected momentum for secondary candidates could still alter the outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,133End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso for first place in the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of 10–15 points or more over Lula in the agricultural Center-West state. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Percent Brasil show the PL candidate at 40–47% in stimulated scenarios, with Lula trailing in the mid-to-high 20s and all other names—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury—remaining in single digits. This positioning stems from regional voter preferences favoring the Liberal Party ticket, Flávio’s formal nomination and running-mate selection in mid-2026, and limited inroads by national alternatives in the state. Trader consensus at 95.5% for his first-place finish aligns with these patterns, though late national shifts, turnout changes among undecided voters, or unexpected momentum for secondary candidates could still alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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