Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Maranhão's first-round presidential vote due to repeated polling showing him at 58-62% support in the state, well ahead of any challenger, alongside 65% approval for his federal government. This reflects Maranhão's longstanding pattern as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party, reinforced by Lula's incumbency, local campaign visits, and consistent preference over figures such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest confirm the gap has held steady into September 2026. A realistic shift would require a major national event, sustained erosion in government approval, or unusually high mobilization by opposition candidates in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 97.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$13,444 Vol.
$13,444 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 97.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$13,444 Vol.
$13,444 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,542 Vol.
97%
Ronaldo Caiado
$549 Vol.
1%
Samara
$577 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$594 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$726 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$629 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$716 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$731 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$699 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$740 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$636 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$640 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$664 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Maranhão's first-round presidential vote due to repeated polling showing him at 58-62% support in the state, well ahead of any challenger, alongside 65% approval for his federal government. This reflects Maranhão's longstanding pattern as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party, reinforced by Lula's incumbency, local campaign visits, and consistent preference over figures such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest confirm the gap has held steady into September 2026. A realistic shift would require a major national event, sustained erosion in government approval, or unusually high mobilization by opposition candidates in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,444End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Maranhão's first-round presidential vote due to repeated polling showing him at 58-62% support in the state, well ahead of any challenger, alongside 65% approval for his federal government. This reflects Maranhão's longstanding pattern as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party, reinforced by Lula's incumbency, local campaign visits, and consistent preference over figures such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest confirm the gap has held steady into September 2026. A realistic shift would require a major national event, sustained erosion in government approval, or unusually high mobilization by opposition candidates in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,444End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Maranhão's first-round presidential vote due to repeated polling showing him at 58-62% support in the state, well ahead of any challenger, alongside 65% approval for his federal government. This reflects Maranhão's longstanding pattern as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party, reinforced by Lula's incumbency, local campaign visits, and consistent preference over figures such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest confirm the gap has held steady into September 2026. A realistic shift would require a major national event, sustained erosion in government approval, or unusually high mobilization by opposition candidates in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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