Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 83.5% implied probability among traders to finish first in Goiás, reflecting his position as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and the leading national opposition figure backed by former President Jair Bolsonaro's political network. Ronaldo Caiado, the former Goiás governor now running with the PSD, sits at 13% amid his established local base and recent state-level polling leads of roughly 33-37% against Flávio and Lula. President Lula trails at 2.6%, consistent with weaker PT performance in the state. With the October 4 first round approaching and free airtime underway, campaign dynamics including right-wing consolidation and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters in this key interior state remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Flavio Bolsonaro 84%
Ronaldo Caiado 14%
Lula 2.3%
Clariana Barao <1%
$52,071 Vol.
$52,071 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
84%
Ronaldo Caiado
14%
Lula
2%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 84%
Ronaldo Caiado 14%
Lula 2.3%
Clariana Barao <1%
$52,071 Vol.
$52,071 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$25,331 Vol.
84%
Ronaldo Caiado
$13,880 Vol.
14%
Lula
$6,432 Vol.
2%
Clariana Barao
$469 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$458 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$494 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$519 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$2,154 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$570 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$385 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$398 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$537 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$444 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 83.5% implied probability among traders to finish first in Goiás, reflecting his position as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and the leading national opposition figure backed by former President Jair Bolsonaro's political network. Ronaldo Caiado, the former Goiás governor now running with the PSD, sits at 13% amid his established local base and recent state-level polling leads of roughly 33-37% against Flávio and Lula. President Lula trails at 2.6%, consistent with weaker PT performance in the state. With the October 4 first round approaching and free airtime underway, campaign dynamics including right-wing consolidation and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters in this key interior state remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$52,071End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 83.5% implied probability among traders to finish first in Goiás, reflecting his position as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and the leading national opposition figure backed by former President Jair Bolsonaro's political network. Ronaldo Caiado, the former Goiás governor now running with the PSD, sits at 13% amid his established local base and recent state-level polling leads of roughly 33-37% against Flávio and Lula. President Lula trails at 2.6%, consistent with weaker PT performance in the state. With the October 4 first round approaching and free airtime underway, campaign dynamics including right-wing consolidation and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters in this key interior state remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$52,071End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 83.5% implied probability among traders to finish first in Goiás, reflecting his position as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and the leading national opposition figure backed by former President Jair Bolsonaro's political network. Ronaldo Caiado, the former Goiás governor now running with the PSD, sits at 13% amid his established local base and recent state-level polling leads of roughly 33-37% against Flávio and Lula. President Lula trails at 2.6%, consistent with weaker PT performance in the state. With the October 4 first round approaching and free airtime underway, campaign dynamics including right-wing consolidation and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters in this key interior state remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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