Recent July 2026 IPCA data showing annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June has reinforced trader focus on the 5.00-5.49% range for full-year 2026, now carrying 46.7% implied probability. Consensus forecasts from the Focus survey and government projections cluster near 5.0-5.1%, reflecting persistent services and labor-market pressures alongside fiscal spending, even as food and transport components moderate. This positions the adjacent 4.50-4.99% bin at 23.5% as a credible alternative if disinflation accelerates ahead of further Selic cuts, while the central bank’s 3.0% target with ±1.5% tolerance band keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Upcoming IBGE releases and Copom meetings will provide key updates to these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 46.6%
4.50-4.99% 24.8%
5.50-5.99% 18.1%
4.00-4.49% 7.2%
$95,470 Vol.
$95,470 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
7%
4.50-4.99%
25%
5.00-5.49%
47%
5.50-5.99%
18%
6.00-6.49%
1%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
3%
5.00-5.49% 46.6%
4.50-4.99% 24.8%
5.50-5.99% 18.1%
4.00-4.49% 7.2%
$95,470 Vol.
$95,470 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$5,727 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,787 Vol.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,189 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$14,048 Vol.
7%
4.50-4.99%
$15,186 Vol.
25%
5.00-5.49%
$14,104 Vol.
47%
5.50-5.99%
$9,462 Vol.
18%
6.00-6.49%
$6,485 Vol.
1%
6.50-6.99%
$6,683 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,799 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent July 2026 IPCA data showing annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June has reinforced trader focus on the 5.00-5.49% range for full-year 2026, now carrying 46.7% implied probability. Consensus forecasts from the Focus survey and government projections cluster near 5.0-5.1%, reflecting persistent services and labor-market pressures alongside fiscal spending, even as food and transport components moderate. This positions the adjacent 4.50-4.99% bin at 23.5% as a credible alternative if disinflation accelerates ahead of further Selic cuts, while the central bank’s 3.0% target with ±1.5% tolerance band keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Upcoming IBGE releases and Copom meetings will provide key updates to these market-implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$95,470End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent July 2026 IPCA data showing annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June has reinforced trader focus on the 5.00-5.49% range for full-year 2026, now carrying 46.7% implied probability. Consensus forecasts from the Focus survey and government projections cluster near 5.0-5.1%, reflecting persistent services and labor-market pressures alongside fiscal spending, even as food and transport components moderate. This positions the adjacent 4.50-4.99% bin at 23.5% as a credible alternative if disinflation accelerates ahead of further Selic cuts, while the central bank’s 3.0% target with ±1.5% tolerance band keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Upcoming IBGE releases and Copom meetings will provide key updates to these market-implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$95,470End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 IPCA data showing annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June has reinforced trader focus on the 5.00-5.49% range for full-year 2026, now carrying 46.7% implied probability. Consensus forecasts from the Focus survey and government projections cluster near 5.0-5.1%, reflecting persistent services and labor-market pressures alongside fiscal spending, even as food and transport components moderate. This positions the adjacent 4.50-4.99% bin at 23.5% as a credible alternative if disinflation accelerates ahead of further Selic cuts, while the central bank’s 3.0% target with ±1.5% tolerance band keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Upcoming IBGE releases and Copom meetings will provide key updates to these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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