Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% on the California Billionaire Tax Act passing in the November 2026 election, driven by robust opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, business groups, and tech billionaires who have raised over $10 million in campaign funds—far outpacing supporters' $3.5 million—while funding counter-initiatives cleared for signatures. Recent reports highlight an exodus of at least six billionaires before the January 1, 2026, residency snapshot, potentially slashing projected $100 billion revenue amid Hoover Institution estimates of a $25 billion net fiscal loss from income tax shortfalls. March 2026 Berkeley IGS polling shows only 52% support versus 33% opposition and 15% undecided, with emerging Democratic and labor divisions; the measure remains unconfirmed for the ballot pending 875,000 signatures by late June.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,952,130 Vol.
$2,952,130 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
$2,952,130 Vol.
$2,952,130 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% on the California Billionaire Tax Act passing in the November 2026 election, driven by robust opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, business groups, and tech billionaires who have raised over $10 million in campaign funds—far outpacing supporters' $3.5 million—while funding counter-initiatives cleared for signatures. Recent reports highlight an exodus of at least six billionaires before the January 1, 2026, residency snapshot, potentially slashing projected $100 billion revenue amid Hoover Institution estimates of a $25 billion net fiscal loss from income tax shortfalls. March 2026 Berkeley IGS polling shows only 52% support versus 33% opposition and 15% undecided, with emerging Democratic and labor divisions; the measure remains unconfirmed for the ballot pending 875,000 signatures by late June.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$2,952,130End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% on the California Billionaire Tax Act passing in the November 2026 election, driven by robust opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, business groups, and tech billionaires who have raised over $10 million in campaign funds—far outpacing supporters' $3.5 million—while funding counter-initiatives cleared for signatures. Recent reports highlight an exodus of at least six billionaires before the January 1, 2026, residency snapshot, potentially slashing projected $100 billion revenue amid Hoover Institution estimates of a $25 billion net fiscal loss from income tax shortfalls. March 2026 Berkeley IGS polling shows only 52% support versus 33% opposition and 15% undecided, with emerging Democratic and labor divisions; the measure remains unconfirmed for the ballot pending 875,000 signatures by late June.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,952,130End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% on the California Billionaire Tax Act passing in the November 2026 election, driven by robust opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, business groups, and tech billionaires who have raised over $10 million in campaign funds—far outpacing supporters' $3.5 million—while funding counter-initiatives cleared for signatures. Recent reports highlight an exodus of at least six billionaires before the January 1, 2026, residency snapshot, potentially slashing projected $100 billion revenue amid Hoover Institution estimates of a $25 billion net fiscal loss from income tax shortfalls. March 2026 Berkeley IGS polling shows only 52% support versus 33% opposition and 15% undecided, with emerging Democratic and labor divisions; the measure remains unconfirmed for the ballot pending 875,000 signatures by late June.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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