Strong structural factors underpin the 96.5% trader consensus that turnout will exceed the 62.9% recorded in Berlin’s 2023 repeat election. The eligible electorate has grown to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million, driven by increased naturalizations, while 16- and 17-year-olds vote for the first time. Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, creating mobilization incentives across the spectrum ahead of the September 20 vote. High participation in other recent German state elections reinforces expectations of elevated engagement. Late developments such as adverse weather, unforeseen scandals, or a sudden collapse in perceived competitiveness could still reduce participation enough to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
91% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Up
91% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Strong structural factors underpin the 96.5% trader consensus that turnout will exceed the 62.9% recorded in Berlin’s 2023 repeat election. The eligible electorate has grown to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million, driven by increased naturalizations, while 16- and 17-year-olds vote for the first time. Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, creating mobilization incentives across the spectrum ahead of the September 20 vote. High participation in other recent German state elections reinforces expectations of elevated engagement. Late developments such as adverse weather, unforeseen scandals, or a sudden collapse in perceived competitiveness could still reduce participation enough to alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,392End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Strong structural factors underpin the 96.5% trader consensus that turnout will exceed the 62.9% recorded in Berlin’s 2023 repeat election. The eligible electorate has grown to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million, driven by increased naturalizations, while 16- and 17-year-olds vote for the first time. Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, creating mobilization incentives across the spectrum ahead of the September 20 vote. High participation in other recent German state elections reinforces expectations of elevated engagement. Late developments such as adverse weather, unforeseen scandals, or a sudden collapse in perceived competitiveness could still reduce participation enough to alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Volume
$2,392End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong structural factors underpin the 96.5% trader consensus that turnout will exceed the 62.9% recorded in Berlin’s 2023 repeat election. The eligible electorate has grown to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million, driven by increased naturalizations, while 16- and 17-year-olds vote for the first time. Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest among the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, creating mobilization incentives across the spectrum ahead of the September 20 vote. High participation in other recent German state elections reinforces expectations of elevated engagement. Late developments such as adverse weather, unforeseen scandals, or a sudden collapse in perceived competitiveness could still reduce participation enough to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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