The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus size after the September 20, 2026 election depends on overhang and leveling mandates under personalized proportional representation, where direct constituency wins by parties such as the CDU, Linke, and AfD exceed their second-vote shares and trigger additional seats to restore proportionality. Five parties cleared the 5% threshold, producing a fragmented result with Linke strongest at roughly 25.7%. Initial tallies pointed to 158 seats, but a constituency recount adjustment in Spandau reduced the total by five, aligning with trader consensus around 153–157 as the most probable final count. The Landeswahlausschuss is scheduled to certify the outcome by mid-October, with further minor revisions possible from remaining discrepancies. This process explains the concentration of probability in the narrow band near the corrected provisional total.