Recent inflation readings, including 6.35% year-over-year in September and further acceleration in early October weekly data, have reinforced pro-inflationary pressures from tariff adjustments and demand factors, prompting analysts to revise 2026 forecasts upward to around 7.1%. Bank of Russia surveys show the expected average key rate for the remainder of 2026 holding near 14.6%, implying limited room for cuts. Following the September pause at 14% after prior easing, consensus points to another hold on October 23 and through the December meeting absent clearer disinflation. This positioning favors no change at the year-end decision, with modest probabilities attached to small reductions only if price pressures moderate more rapidly than current indicators suggest.