Mexico’s central bank has held its benchmark rate at 6.50% since pausing its easing cycle in mid-2026, with the November decision now priced at a 56% chance of no change and 38.8% for a 25 basis point cut. September headline inflation rose to 3.45% year-over-year on higher energy and food prices, while core inflation eased further to 3.75%, supporting the data-dependent pause amid a negative output gap and subdued 1.4% GDP growth forecast for 2026. Recent minutes revealed board members open to a one-off trim if disinflation continues, though risks from volatile non-core items and the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle keep expectations for any move cautious, with analysts seeing the rate unchanged through 2027.