Banxico’s unanimous hold at 6.50% in September, reinforced by analyst surveys projecting no policy change through 2027, underpins the 95% market-implied probability of no November adjustment. Headline inflation near 3.5-3.8% remains above the 3% target amid mixed core and non-core readings, while the central bank’s guidance prioritizes the domestic disinflation path, slack conditions, and exchange-rate pass-through over mechanical alignment with Federal Reserve moves. This stance aligns with subdued demand pressures and revised 2026 growth forecasts around 1.4%. A sharper peso depreciation from wider rate differentials or a sustained core inflation rebound could still prompt reconsideration, though current data and forward guidance support broad trader consensus for stability.