Trader consensus for no change at Banxico’s November meeting stems from the central bank’s unanimous September 24 hold at 6.50% and private-sector forecasts projecting the policy rate unchanged through 2027. Headline inflation stood at 3.42% in the first half of September, up from 3.26% but with core easing to 3.79%; analysts trimmed 2026 headline and core forecasts to 3.87% and 3.90% respectively while raising GDP growth to 1.4%. The board’s guidance emphasizes the ongoing disinflation process and Mexico’s distinct cycle versus the Fed, supporting market-implied odds near 95% for stability. A sharper inflation rebound or material peso depreciation from further Fed tightening could still shift the outlook.