The Bank of Japan’s September policy decision carries a near-100% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate increase to 1.25%, reflecting broad trader consensus built on July core CPI near 1.9%, sustained wage gains, and upside risks to inflation from elevated energy costs and a weak yen. Recent hawkish signals from Governor Ueda, combined with explicit U.S. Treasury pressure to support the currency, have accelerated the tightening pace beyond the prior six-month interval, moving policy closer to the estimated neutral range of 1.1-2.5%. This pricing aligns with economist surveys showing 89-97% expecting the hike. A surprise dissent or softer forward guidance could still shift post-decision sentiment, though such outcomes appear remote given the data trajectory and board signals.