Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 29-30 meeting, reflecting the policy rate’s recent lift to 1.25% in September and the central bank’s preference to evaluate the effects of that tightening on financial conditions and domestic demand before acting again. Recent Tankan survey results and Tokyo CPI data have reinforced confidence that underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target, yet officials see no sharp acceleration requiring an immediate follow-up move. The appointment of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, viewed as favoring looser fiscal policy, has further tempered near-term hike expectations. A sharper yen depreciation or hotter-than-expected inflation prints ahead of the meeting could still prompt reconsideration, though futures pricing assigns low odds to such outcomes materializing in time for October.